Philosophy 6: Logic in Practice

Los Angeles Pierce College

Department of History, Philosophy, & Sociology

 

 

 

 

 

Lecture Notes

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lecture Notes for "Chapter Nine: Inductive Thinking:  Identifying Causes / Analogical Arguments " of Porter's The Voice of Reason

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inductive Formal Arguments     

 

"In the inductive process we reason from specific instances to some generalization based upon those instances." 

 

From particular cases to general conclusion

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In a Sense, Educated Guesses   

"Induction hazards an educated guess based on strong but not absolute proof about some general conclusion that can be drawn from the evidence." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Certitude  

Inductive conclusions do not have certitude

        

E.G.   "even for the statement that the sun will shine every day, which is based on all recorded instances in the past but not on all possible instances." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Probability        

With inductive arguments, we seek not certainty, but a "high degree of probability"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter Nine: Causation & Analogy

 

Chapter Ten: Generalization & Hypothesis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Causation

 

The Consequent and the Subsequent

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Similarity

 

Causation ­ Similarity

 

Consider "the 'law of similarity,' whereby like is thought to produce like." 

 

Here we have "cases where an event is thought to be the cause of another just because it came first." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

Watch for a False Connection    

 

Two unrelated events are illicitly assumed to connected

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

Similarity

 

E.G.   Consider Pythagoras and beans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

        

Connections     

 

"Sometimes when we say that one event has produced another that claim is reasonable and correct." 

 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Necessary v. Accidental Sequences   

 

"The problem, therefore, lies in recognizing genuine causal connections and distinguishing them from mere temporal succession."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

        

Causes     

 

"A causal event compels a further event to occur rather than simply preceding it." 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

        

Subsequent v. Consequent        

 

An Accidental Sequence has Merely Subsequent Steps

 

A Necessary Sequence has Consequent Steps

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Four Methods of Establishing Causal Connections       

 

Agreement

 

Difference

 

Agreement and Difference

 

Concomitant Variations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Necessary & Sufficient Conditions     

 

"a necessary condition is that without which something cannot occur." 

 

"The sufficient conditions are those that in the presence of which something must occur." 

        

 

 

 

 

E.G.   "Salt cannot occur without the presence of sodium, but that is not enough.  One part chlorine is also necessary, and the two together they the (sic.) sufficient conditions for producing salt (NaCl)." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

Qualification     

 

Not all conditions are causes

        

E.G.   Charlie has got to get to Candy Mountain so he bums some money off me so he can rent a car (he needs a convertible, for obvious reasons, so he can't borrow my car)

 

I loan Charlie fifty quid

 

Charlie gets into a car accident

 

Charlie, not the finest unicorn at logic, pins some of the blame on me since my loaning him fifty quid was one of the conditions the lead to him getting into an accident

 

I defend myself by pointing out to Charlie that ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not all conditions are causes: Proximate & Remote    

 

Proximate Causes

 

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Remote Causes

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Proximate

 

"a proximate cause is that which immediately triggers an event."

 

A proximate cause "functions as the factor that precipitates some happening." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Remote

 

"A remote cause, on the other hand, is the background cause that ultimately produces a certain effect; these causes are usually multiple." 

 

Remote causes "stretch backwards in time as links in the cause-effect chain, and contribute to the inevitable and final outcome." 

        

Proximate and Remote

Causes

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E.G.   WWI

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Difficulties with Causal Determination

 

With Cause          "One lesson to be learned is that most events are the consequence of numerous causes, so try (sic.) to find the single cause or 'real' cause, whether proximate or remote, can be a futile exercise." 

 

"Some causes are certainly main ones and others peripheral, but rarely do we find one event that can be labeled as the cause." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

Some Problems in Determining Causation

 

Cause v. Effect

 

Causation v. Correlation

 

Logical v. Psychological

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Similes & Metaphors

 

"Similes and metaphors are figures of speech that compare two things for their illuminating or evocative resemblance."

 

"similes and metaphors compare things that are essentially different except for some arresting similarity"

        

 

 

Similes     

 

"Similes, from the Latin meaning 'likeness,' use the terms 'as' or 'like' to make the comparison explicit"

        

Metaphors         

 

"metaphors, from the Greek meaning 'transfer,' dispense with the indicator terms and imply the connection by substituting the language of one for the other." 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

        

Analogical Arguments       

 

" ... declare a relationship between two things, a parallel connection, usually between two ideas or a set of ideas." 

 

"analogical arguments compare things that are alike in all essential respects and are then claimed to be alike in some further respect." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

E.G. Copernicus         

 

"It was analogical thinking that led Copernicus to conceive of a heliocentric rather than a geocentric solar system.  One day while Copernicus was drifting down a river in a boat, he experienced the illusion that the bank was moving while his boat remained still.  The idea suddenly struck him that it could also be an illusion that the sun moved around the earth while the earth remained stationary; perhaps it was the earth that revolved around the sun.  He verified his analogy by experimental device, and revolutionized our conception of the universe." 

        

E.G. Watchmaker           

 

E.G. State/Soul     

        

E.G. / Camel, Lion, Toddler    

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

        

Effectiveness    

 

Follow the rules

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rule One  

 

1) "The two cases must be alike in all essential respects, and the greater the similarities the more probable the argument." 

 

"we want to be sure that we have numerous characteristics that are alike in the cases compared." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rule One / E.G.

 

A rainbow of unicorns is composed of individual unicorns working to achieve a common goal, and just as teamwork is necessary for unicorns to achieve their common goals, it is likewise necessary for narwhals

 

A pod of narwhals is composed of individual narwhals working together to achieve a common goal

 

So, narwhals should evince teamwork

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rule Two  

 

2) "The greater the number of cases compared, the stronger the probability of the conclusion." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rule Two / E.G.         

 

It is not just that one rainbow of unicorns (composed of individual unicorns working to achieve a common goal) evinces teamwork, thirteen different rainbows of unicorns have the same qualities. 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rule Three        

 

3) "The greater the dissimilarity of the cases used as the base of the analogy, the higher the probability of the conclusion." 

 

"we are concerned to diversify the cases themselves so that we are not using just one type as a foundation for the analogy." 

        

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rule Three / E.G.      

 

And it's not just the Californian Bearded Unicorns that have these qualities, it is also the Wooly Unicorns of Montana, the Frisky Unicorns of Kšln, and the Freckled Unicorns of Berlin that evince teamwork

 

If it could be shown that even horses have the same qualities, and thus teamwork, the analogy would be even stronger