Philosophy
6: Logic in Practice
Los Angeles Pierce College
Department of History, Philosophy, & Sociology
Lecture Notes
Lecture Notes for
"Chapter Nine: Inductive Thinking:
Identifying Causes / Analogical Arguments " of Porter's The Voice of Reason
Inductive Formal Arguments
"In the inductive
process we reason from specific instances to some generalization based upon
those instances."
From particular cases to
general conclusion
In a Sense, Educated Guesses
"Induction hazards an
educated guess based on strong but not absolute proof about some general
conclusion that can be drawn from the evidence."
Certitude
Inductive conclusions do
not have certitude
E.G. "even for the statement that the sun
will shine every day, which is based on all recorded instances in the past but
not on all possible instances."
Probability
With inductive arguments,
we seek not certainty, but a "high degree of probability"
Chapter Nine: Causation & Analogy
Chapter Ten: Generalization & Hypothesis
Causation
The Consequent and the
Subsequent
Similarity
Causation Similarity
Consider "the 'law of
similarity,' whereby like is thought to produce like."
Here we have "cases
where an event is thought to be the cause of another just because it came
first."
Watch for a False Connection
Two unrelated events are
illicitly assumed to connected
Similarity
E.G. Consider Pythagoras and beans
Connections
"Sometimes when we
say that one event has produced another that claim is reasonable and
correct."
Necessary v. Accidental Sequences
"The problem,
therefore, lies in recognizing genuine causal connections and distinguishing
them from mere temporal succession."
Causes
"A causal event
compels a further event to occur rather than simply preceding it."
Subsequent v. Consequent
An Accidental Sequence has Merely Subsequent Steps
A Necessary Sequence has
Consequent Steps
Four Methods of Establishing Causal Connections
Agreement
Difference
Agreement and Difference
Concomitant Variations
Necessary & Sufficient Conditions
"a necessary
condition is that without which something cannot occur."
"The sufficient
conditions are those that in the presence of which something must
occur."
E.G. "Salt cannot occur without the
presence of sodium, but that is not enough. One part
chlorine is also necessary, and the two together they the (sic.) sufficient
conditions for producing salt (NaCl)."
Qualification
Not all conditions are
causes
E.G. Charlie has got to get to Candy Mountain
so he bums some money off me so he can rent a car (he needs a convertible, for
obvious reasons, so he can't borrow my car)
I loan Charlie fifty quid
Charlie gets into a car
accident
Charlie, not the finest
unicorn at logic, pins some of the blame on me since my loaning him fifty quid
was one of the conditions the lead to him getting into an accident
I defend myself by
pointing out to Charlie that ...
Not all conditions are causes: Proximate
& Remote
Proximate Causes
Remote Causes
Proximate
"a proximate cause is
that which immediately triggers an event."
A proximate cause
"functions as the factor that precipitates some happening."
Remote
"A remote cause, on
the other hand, is the background cause that
ultimately produces a certain effect; these causes are usually
multiple."
Remote causes
"stretch backwards in time as links in the cause-effect chain, and
contribute to the inevitable and final outcome."
Proximate and Remote
Causes
/
E.G. WWI
Difficulties with Causal Determination
With Cause "One
lesson to be learned is that most events are the consequence of numerous
causes, so try (sic.) to find the single cause or 'real' cause, whether
proximate or remote, can be a futile exercise."
"Some causes are
certainly main ones and others peripheral, but rarely do we find one event that
can be labeled as the cause."
Some Problems in Determining Causation
Cause v. Effect
Causation v. Correlation
Logical v. Psychological
Similes & Metaphors
"Similes and
metaphors are figures of speech that compare two things for their illuminating
or evocative resemblance."
"similes and
metaphors compare things that are essentially different except for some
arresting similarity"
Similes
"Similes, from the
Latin meaning 'likeness,' use the terms 'as' or 'like'
to make the comparison explicit"
Metaphors
"metaphors, from the
Greek meaning 'transfer,' dispense with the indicator terms and imply the
connection by substituting the language of one for the other."
Analogical Arguments
" ... declare a
relationship between two things, a parallel connection, usually between two
ideas or a set of ideas."
"analogical arguments
compare things that are alike in all essential respects and are then claimed to
be alike in some further respect."
E.G. Copernicus
"It was analogical
thinking that led Copernicus to conceive of a heliocentric rather than a
geocentric solar system. One day
while Copernicus was drifting down a river in a boat, he experienced the
illusion that the bank was moving while his boat remained still. The idea suddenly struck him that it
could also be an illusion that the sun moved around the earth while the earth
remained stationary; perhaps it was the earth that revolved around the sun. He verified his analogy by experimental
device, and revolutionized our conception of the universe."
E.G. Watchmaker
E.G. State/Soul
E.G. / Camel, Lion,
Toddler
Effectiveness
Follow the rules
Rule One
1) "The two cases
must be alike in all essential respects, and the greater the similarities the
more probable the argument."
"we want to be sure
that we have numerous characteristics that are alike in the cases
compared."
Rule One / E.G.
A rainbow of unicorns is
composed of individual unicorns working to achieve a common goal, and just as
teamwork is necessary for unicorns to achieve their common goals, it is
likewise necessary for narwhals
A pod of narwhals is
composed of individual narwhals working together to achieve a common goal
So, narwhals should evince
teamwork
Rule Two
2) "The greater the
number of cases compared, the stronger the probability of the conclusion."
Rule Two / E.G.
It is not just that one
rainbow of unicorns (composed of individual unicorns working to achieve a
common goal) evinces teamwork, thirteen different rainbows of unicorns have the
same qualities.
Rule Three
3) "The greater the
dissimilarity of the cases used as the base of the analogy, the higher the
probability of the conclusion."
"we are concerned to
diversify the cases themselves so that we are not using just one type as a
foundation for the analogy."
Rule Three / E.G.
And it's not just the
Californian Bearded Unicorns that have these qualities, it is also the Wooly
Unicorns of Montana, the Frisky Unicorns of Kšln, and the Freckled Unicorns of Berlin
that evince teamwork
If it could be shown that
even horses have the same qualities, and thus teamwork, the analogy would be
even stronger